AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida’s state primaries

WASHINGTON — Republican Rick Scott’s bid for renomination for a second Senate term tops the list of races Florida voters will decide in Tuesday’s primary.

Scott is heavily favored against opponents John Columbus, an actor and former Walt Disney World performer, and Keith Gross, a lawyer who ran twice for the Georgia state House as a Democrat but now supports Donald Trump.

Gross said in a 2023 interview that he was prepared to spend $20 million to $30 million of his own money to unseat Scott. Federal campaign finance records show Gross loaned or donated $2.4 million to his campaign and had about $13,000 in the bank as of July 31. Scott had nearly $3.9 million in the bank and raised more than $30 million during the campaign. Columbus lagged far behind both candidates on campaign finance.

In the Democratic primary, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leads a field of four candidates in fundraising. Powell’s main challenger was Phil Ehr, a retired Navy commander, but he withdrew from the race in October. Ehr is now running for the seat Mucarsel-Powell lost to Republican Carlos Gimenez in 2020.

Mucarsel-Powell has raised $14.4 million and started the month with $4.4 million in the bank, well ahead of any of her remaining primary opponents.

Democrats face a daunting Senate electoral map in a year in which they are defending vulnerable seats across the country.

If Trump wins the White House, Republicans would need a net one-seat gain to retake control of the chamber and would almost certainly end up in West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. The Florida race gives Democrats one of their only chances to go on the offensive against a Republican incumbent.

Not only is Scott looking beyond the primary to his expected contest with Mucarsel-Powell, but he’s also strategizing for a new role in the next Senate. In May, he said he would run for Senate Republican leader to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Florida voters will also decide 30 House primaries.

In the 8th Congressional District, three Republicans and two Democrats are running to replace Republican Bill Posey, who is retiring after eight terms. Former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos is the best-known and best-funded candidate in the Republican field. He faces Joe Babits, a lawyer and former Securities and Exchange Commission official, and John Hearton, a former technology company executive.

The Democratic candidate will be either lawyer Sandy Kennedy or West Melbourne councilor Daniel McDown. Trump twice carried the heavily Republican district with 58 percent of the vote.

Democrats and Republicans will each hold five contested Senate primaries. Thirty-five state House primaries are being contested. Half of Florida’s 40 state Senate seats and all 120 state House seats are up for election. Republicans hold more than 2-to-1 majorities in both chambers.

A look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The last polls close at 8:00 PM EDT, although polls in most of the state close at 7:00 PM EDT.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide voting results and declare winners in contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate, state House and several state attorney and public defender positions.

Who can vote?

Only voters registered with a political party can participate in that party’s primary. Democrats cannot vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters cannot participate in either primary.

Decision notes

Once the nation’s preeminent battleground state in national elections, Florida has tilted to the right since the 2000 presidential election. Registered Democrats have outnumbered registered Republicans in Florida for at least 50 years, dating back to the early 1970s. they outpaced Democrats in registration after the 2020 election, and that lead grew to a lead of about 1 million voters in August.

Although Democrat Joe Biden received 48 percent of the vote in Florida in 2020, his then-re-election campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, said in a podcast interview in June that Florida is not a battleground state, even though it April’s campaign memo described an “opening in Florida.” He is now part of Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign.

Key areas in the statewide election are the Gold Coast counties of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, as well as counties along the so-called I-4 corridor, including Hillsborough and Orange counties, where Tampa and , Orlando.

AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when it is determined that there is no scenario that allows the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. By doing so, the AP will clarify that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Counts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the automatic recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required. AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too great for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.

What does turnout and early voting look like?

As of Wednesday, Florida had about 13.6 million registered voters. Of those, 32% were Democrats, 39% were Republicans, and 26% were independents with no party affiliation.

In the 2022 midterm elections, voter turnout was about 11% of registered voters in the Democratic primary. About 72% of the votes in that election were cast before primary day. Republicans did not participate in statewide primaries that year.

As of Thursday, more than 347,000 ballots had been cast before primary day, about 40 percent in the Democratic primary and 47 percent in the Republican primary. About three-quarters of the primary vote was cast by mail, with the remainder cast early in person. Slightly more Democrats cast their ballots by mail than Republicans, while Republicans cast about two-thirds of their early voting in person. The early voting period began on August 10 and ends on Saturday.

How long does it usually take to count votes?

In the 2022 midterm primary, the AP first reported results at 7:01 pm EDT, or one minute after the first polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 1:14 am ET with approximately 99.9% of all votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 77 days until the November general election.