Donald Trump’s chances of winning California, according to polls

Last week, Donald Trump’s lawyer Alina Habba released a video on TikTok in which she claimed that the Californians she spoke to “have had it with Governor Gavin Newsom’s really liberal policies” before concluding: “Let’s we’re letting the California boys go.”

However, recent polls show that Republicans have an uphill task if they are to win the Golden State for Trump in November, with two recent polls putting him 25 and 26 points behind Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive presidential nominee, respectively Democrat in 2024.

Since Harris, a California native, replaced President Joe Biden as the expected 2024 Democratic nominee in July, Trump has fallen back in the polls, with more than a dozen polls showing him as the popular vote for vice president.

Speaking at a press conference on August 15, Trump targeted Harris for her tenure as California attorney general, claiming she had “destroyed San Francisco” and would “do the same to our country” if would be elected to the White House.

Speaking in a TikTok video posted on August 15, Habba, who has become a prominent Trump media advocate, said: “I’m in the great city of Los Angeles, and even though the state is pretty liberal, I look around and I’ve been talking with some of the drivers and people I’ve met and they all say they’ve had it with Gavin Newsom’s really liberal policies, with migrants taking their jobs, ruining their streets and created an unsafe environment.”

A poll of 3,765 likely voters in California, conducted July 31-August 11 by the University of California, Berkeley and co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Timesfound Harris leading Trump by 25 points, 59 percent of the vote to 34 percent.

Harris’ margin over Trump was 7 points higher than Biden’s university lead in an earlier poll conducted before the president announced he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race on July 21.

Separately, Capitol Weekly polled 1,904 likely voters in California between July 25-27. They found that Harris had a 24-point lead over Trump, with 59 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for the Republican challenger. The poll also found that 5 percent of likely voters in the state would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 2 percent support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Older polls showed Trump on track to lose California even before Harris replaced Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee. A Capitol Weekly poll of 1,044 likely voters, conducted between July 12 and 14, placed Harris with 54 percent of the vote, 21 points ahead of the second-place Republican candidate.

A Public Policy Institute of California poll of 1,261 likely voters in the state, conducted between June 24 and July 2, put Biden ahead of Trump, 55 percent to 30 percent.

Newsweek reached out to representatives of Trump’s and Harris’ 2024 presidential campaigns for comment by email Monday outside regular business hours.

A recent Siena College survey for The New York Times found a 35-point gender gap in support for Harris and Trump. The Democratic candidate enjoyed a 21-point lead among women, while her Republican rival led men by 14 points. If elected, Harris would be the first female president of the United States in the nation’s history.