Kamala Harris inches ahead of Donald Trump in all but two battleground states: Poll

In another batch of polls showing momentum on her side, Vice President Kamala Harris has surpassed or tied former President Donald Trump in all but one of the battleground states, a new poll found.

On average, Harris held a 48 percent to 47 percent lead over Trump in the top seven battleground states, beating him in all but Georgia, where they tied, and Nevada, where former President had an advantage, according to a Cook Political Report poll.

When third-party contenders were added to the mix, Harris, 59, won an additional point over Trump, 46 percent to 44 percent.

In a head-to-head battle, Arizona’s Harris took 48% to Trump’s 46%, Georgia (48% to 48%), Michigan (49% to 46%), Nevada (45% to to 48%), North Carolina (48% to 47%), Pennsylvania (49% to 48%), and Wisconsin (49% to 46%).

With third-party hopefuls added to the fray, Harris scored in Arizona 46% to Trump’s 42%, Georgia (46% to 46%), Michigan (46% to 44%), Nevada (42% to 47%), North Carolina (46% to 44%), Pennsylvania (48% to 43%) and Wisconsin (48% to 43%).

When President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, the third-party contenders thrown into the mix would benefit Trump.

Polls have shown mixed results on whether or not third-party contenders are hindering Trump more than Harris. Several recent polls have found Trump doing worse than Harris when third-party candidates are taken into account, but some of RealClearPolitics’ aggregates find the opposite to be true.

For example, Harris has a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the latest national RCP polling total for a two-way matchup. When third-party competitors are added, this drops to a 0.8 point lead.

Also of note in the Cook Political Report’s findings is that Harris sent Trump to North Carolina, which was widely considered one of the reddest of the major battleground states.

Trump has the second-largest lead in the battleground state of North Carolina, according to the latest RCP aggregate, with a 2.4-point lead. That’s just behind Nevada, where Trump is up 3.5 points, per RCP.

Nevada has not voted for a Republican in a presidential election cycle since 2004.

In June, Trump unveiled a proposed “no tip tax” policy that appears to target the Battle Born state, which has a lot of service activity. Harris copied that proposal at a rally in Los Vegas last week. The move could cost between $150 billion and $250 billion over the next decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Overall, Harris appears to have narrowed Trump’s lead in swing states by about six points since May.

In the Cook Political Report’s May findings, Trump toppled Biden by an average of 3 points overall and was either leading or dead even with him in all seven battleground states.

That May poll notably found Senate Democrats leading Biden overall in those key states, something that spooked that party and loomed over last month’s revolt against him.

The latest Cook Political Report poll sampled 2,867 likely voters between July 26 and August 2. It was conducted by GS Strategy Group (a Republican polling firm) and BSG (a Democratic polling firm).

Trump’s campaign predicted the polls would tighten dramatically after Harris jumped to the top of the ticket last month. His pollster Tony Fabrizio argued that there would be a “honeymoon” phase for Harris, but argued that the dynamics of the race would not change that much.

Last week, the Cook Political Report handicapper moved three states — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — away from Trump, moving them from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”