Democrats are united around a new energy with a radical morale shift

A month ago, Democrats weren’t just “in disarray,” as the perennial meme beloved by conservatives goes. They were downright desperate.

President Joe Biden insisted he would remain on the presidential ticket unless the Almighty himself told him to resign. Since the Almighty has not made many direct interventions in human affairs since that conversation with Moses on Mount Sinai several years ago, it seemed that the Democrats were stuck with a candidate that most Americans considered too old to run again.

Then came the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, from which he emerged with his fist in the air, surrounded by Secret Service agents, blood pouring from his ear. That image became instantly iconic, a show of defiance against an alleged killer. A columnist for The Guardian had the temerity to put into words what many of us were thinking: “Did Donald Trump just win the election?”

Yes, was the predominant response. In the days after Trump’s assassination, in the texts exchanged with Democratic operatives on Capitol Hill and Biden administration staffers, I sensed only unmitigated despair. Everyone was happy that Trump escaped unscathed, but they also recognized how much that moment seemingly changed the entire political landscape.

“The presidential race ended last night,” a Democratic strategist told NBC News.

Morale was falling. Not just electoral morale, but the morale of people who feared their work — on green energy, racial equity, Israel-Palestine — would be undone by Trump, just as much of Barack Obama’s legacy had been in part after the 2016 election. .

The shock of Trump’s 2016 victory came at the last minute when the stunning results came in Wisconsin and Michigan. But when Democrats realized the ship was sinking in July 2024, many resigned themselves to seeing a slow three months. emotional defeat – as Trump coasted to perhaps the easiest presidential victory since Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale in 1984.

Now it’s August, the Democratic National Convention is about to begin in Chicago, and the reversal of fortunes since late July couldn’t be more stunning.

As a disinterested non-voting observer, however, I’ve seen every Democrat I know wake up as if from a long, frustrating slumber to a sunny reality they didn’t know could exist. Not since the early days of the Obama phenomenon has there been this much energy from Democrats.

We have a lot to learn about Vice President Kamala Harris, but there’s no doubt that she’s energized the entire party in just a few weeks, despite being a well-known and unpopular political entity for the past four years. It’s like she’s fallen from a perch, you might say, to suddenly find herself freed from what she was (I’ll stop now).

“She has a head start and I haven’t seen that happen in 30 days of my life,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently told CNBC.

It took a few steps to build this intensity.

First came the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and the selection of Senator JD Vance of Ohio as Trump’s running mate. I argued from the beginning that it was a bad choice born of arrogance, pushed by crypto-enthusiasts, fringe nationalists and online edgelords (in other words, Peter Thiel). Everything since has confirmed that opinion, and then some. Vance is a serious obstacle for the Republican ticket. Don’t be surprised if Trump replaces Vance with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who he should have picked in the first place.

Then, of course, came The Swap. Here, I made an incorrect prediction: that Harris would not be seen as a legitimate choice to replace Biden unless she emerged from something resembling a primary. I was wrong. With astonishing speed, Harris got the entire Democratic establishment to endorse her as Biden’s successor.

Third was Tim Walz. We found the far-left campaign against Josh Shapiro, the popular and moderate governor of Pennsylvania, to be inappropriate and frankly laced with anti-Semitism. At the same time, I’m sure his Minnesota counterpart is the better choice at this point.

Walz provides a better contrast to Harris herself, and her Midwestern folksy charm has been a tonic for our bitter political climate. Additionally, his labeling of Trump, and especially Vance, as “freaks” in an MSNBC interview may turn out to be the most inspired political branding of the season. He only extended the enthusiasm for Harris, while Vance continued to appeal to Trump.

And then there’s Trump himself, who has struggled to define his new opponent while resorting to some of his worst impulses, attacking her racial identity at a summit of black journalists, then going after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, the Republican leader of a key. state.

“Trump Looks Like a Loser Again,” was the headline of a column written by The Wall Street Journal’s Gerard Baker, a conservative who likes Harris as much as I like the Boston Red Sox. By no means would I call Trump – but it is simply undeniable that his chances of victory are diminishing. He does nothing to help his own chances.

And expect to see activist protests in Chicago. Although some pro-Palestinian activists have said they are willing to give Harris a chance, she is unlikely to budge from her commitment to Israel, which could lead to a damaging infighting. Her centrist views on the economy could also frustrate a left that, like the right, is bound to be disappointed that Harris is not a barricade progressive.

Please don’t read any of this as cheerleading. It’s simply true that Democrats have enjoyed a reversal of fortunes unlike anything we’ve seen in American politics. It may not last, but it is real.