Yle poll: Top three consolidate positions, Finnish party recovers slightly from recent losses | Yale News

Support for the current government remained below 45% over the summer, according to the Yle party’s latest support poll.

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Finland’s top three political parties – the National Coalition (NCP) and Finland’s governing parties, as well as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) – saw their support increase slightly in Yle’s latest voter sentiment survey.

The results consolidate the position of the three parties at the top of the latest survey.

The SDP saw its recent decline in support reversed in the latest poll as it saw a slight increase in voter support of 0.3 percent to leave the main opposition party in second place in the poll with 20.4 percent.

NCP, led by the Prime Minister Petteri Orporetained its lead with 21.6% of voter support, while the Finns Party remained in third place with 15.9%.

The latest survey reflects typical summer results with minimal changes, according to the survey Tuomo TurjaResearch Director at the Taloustutkimus survey.

“All changes are within the margin of error. The top three parties have slightly increased their support but remain at similar levels as before,” he said.

The SDP is no longer losing support for the Left

Turja also noted that support for the SDP, which had steadily declined from 24.4% in May, has now stabilized.

In the previous poll, the SDP lost female supporters to the Left Alliance, but Turja noted a change in the trend now.

“The Left’s support among women remains relatively high, but it has decreased compared to the previous survey. The SDP’s support among women is slightly increasing,” he said.

The timing of the controversial deportation bill vote during the voting period momentarily affected the performances of various parties. The government-backed law was voted on in parliament in mid-July.

The opposition SDP, which backed the government in backing the bill, saw its support drop in the weeks after the vote, Turja noted.

Meanwhile, the Left Alliance, which voted against the law, saw its support stabilize in the weeks following the vote, while the Green Party also saw its support fall, having also opposed the controversial amendment of the law.

The Finnish party is losing long-term support

Support for the Finns Party has fallen 4.2 percentage points since the 2023 spring election, and although it rebounded in the latest poll, the party last month polled 5.3 percentage points below the election result.

According to Turja, the long-term decline in support for Finns is particularly visible among the working population.

“The Finns have long been the most voted and most popular party among the working population. At the moment, however, the SDP and the Finns are tied for support among the working population,” he said.

Government support drops below 45%.

Support for governing parties has been declining over the long term. Although there was a slight increase in the last poll, support remains at 44.8 percent.

The decline that began in late spring is largely due to declining support for the Finland Party, according to Turja.

Meanwhile, in the long term, the Left and the Greens, who performed poorly in the parliamentary elections, increased their support.

With the exception of two polls, Petteri Orpo’s government has consistently been less popular than Juha SipiläHis (Centre) Govt in a similar time period. The difference in popularity between Antti Rinne–Sanna MarinHis (SDP) government and the current administration has now exceeded ten percentage points.

Taloustutkimus interviewed 2,497 people between 8 July and 6 August 2024 to compile the survey, 1,827 expressed their party preferences. The margin of error is ± 2.0 percentage points.

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